NOMINATIONS
There can be between five and 10 nominees for Best Picture. To reap a bid, a film has to be one of the top choices of at least 5% of the members taking part in the nomination phase. (See explanation of the counting for other categories here.)
To illustrate how the system for Best Picture works, let's look at the 2011 race where there ended up being nine nominees.
Oscar nomination ballots for Best Picture were sent to 6, 028 members of the Academy with instructions to list up to five films.
Let's assume that 80% of members submitted their ballots by the deadline; that would make for 4, 822 ballots in all and 5% of this total is 241 votes.
There are three ways to get to our magic number of 241:
- be listed first on a ballot;
- be listed second on a ballot with a film in first place so popular it triggers the surplus rule; or
- be listed second on a ballot with a film in first place that is tops with less than 1% of voters.
Ballots are sorted by the first choice and only those films listed at the top of at least one ballot remain in play.
The maximum number of Best Picture contenders is 10. In our scenario, the initial threshold for a nomination is set at 439 votes (4, 822 divided by 11 and rounded up). If each of 10 films reached this cut-off, they would account for 4, 390 ballots, making it mathematically impossible for an eleventh film to get 439 first place votes.
The surplus rule is applied to all films that are listed first on at least 10% more ballots than the initial threshold required for a nomination. (For other categories, the trigger is 20%).
In our scenario - where the threhold is 439 votes - this would apply to those films which received at least 463 first place votes. Each of these ballots is apportioned as follows: a share goes to the first place film such that it reaches the initial nomination threshold and the remaining share goes to the second place film if it is still in play (otherwise to the next film on the list that is still in play).
Of our 30 Experts, 23 had "The Artist" in first place. Let's assume it was tops on 15% of the ballots returned; that would give it 694 first place votes. It only needs 421 first place votes to reach the initial threshold so each ballot is apportioned with .61 of the vote going to "The Artist" and .39 to the second place film if it is still in play (otherwise to the next film listed which is still in play). Those fractional votes are the equivalent of 273 ballots in all.
Three of our Experts ranked "The Descendants" in first place. Let's assume it made the grade with 12% of the voters; that would give it 555 first place votes. That total also triggers the surplus rule with .76 of the vote going to "The Descendants" and .24 to the second place film if it is still in play (otherwise to the next film listed which is still in play). Those fractional votes are the equivalent of 134 ballots in all.
Which films were likely to be listed second on those ballots that trigger the surplus rule? Did members who love "The Artist" like "Midnight in Paris" almost as much? Were those fans of "The Descendants" also enamored with "Moneyball"?
Those films listed in first on less than 1% of the ballots (in our scenario, that would be 46 ballots) are out of the running. These ballots are redistributed to the next film listed which is still in play (i.e. they will not be shifted to other films with less than 1% support found lower down on these ballots).
The counting is over at this point and all those films with at least 5% of the total ballots cast (in our scenario, 232 ballots) will be the Best Picture nominees.
Among them, our 30 Experts were predicting 21 different films to be nominated for Best Picture. Of those with deep support, "The Artist, " "The Descendants" and "The Help" make the grade with all of our Experts while "Hugo" got 29 votes and "Midnight in Paris, " "Moneyball" and "War Horse" each earned 28 votes. All seven of these films reaped Best Picture nominations.
