Some years, the Best Picture Oscar race already has boiled down to one, two or three sure things by the time December rolls around. It coincides with critics groups voting on their picks, and screeners being sent out. That is not the case this year in a competition that is about as wide open as you can get. I base this on Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences members with whom I have spoken, who—unlike the critics who see and digest all films in contention much quicker than the average voter—take their time in trying to see everything.
Oddly, the conventional wisdom that it’s better to release Oscar hopefuls in the final three months of the year actually might not be the smartest piece of advice. Many of the titles I am hearing enthusiasm for—Straight Outta Compton, Inside Out, Love & Mercy and others—were released in the summer but are getting a boost now, not only from early screeners but also the fact that they have had a much better chance to be seen. Having said that, most movies being mentioned for one of up to 10 spots in the Best Picture race have, as usual, been released in the Oscar-friendly corridor of fall and Christmas.
Commonly thought to be leading the pack at this date are two films: a classic studio box office blockbuster, , and a growing indie success story, Spotlight The latter deals with a journalistic investigation into a scandal revolving around the Catholic Church in Boston and priests accused of sexually abusing kids. It roundly has been applauded by critics groups, including Los Angeles and Boston (duh!), who voted it their top award. The Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG Awards also have taken major notice. On the other hand, the highly entertaining The Martian not only is a rare Best Picture front-runner that combines box office success with critical acclaim, it also represents director Ridley Scott’s strongest shot at finally getting his own Oscar statuette. He directed the 2000 Best Picture winner Gladiator but was overlooked in the director race that year in favor of Traffic’s Steven Soderbergh. This all makes the 78-year-old director and his movie somewhat of a sentimental favorite this year.
Some directors who are no strangers to Oscar glory have returned with contender films. There’s Alejandro G. Iñárritu and his brutal, bloody Western, , which could bring him riding back into the Dolby Theatre for a second year in a row after his Birdman won the Best Picture prize last year; David O. Russell has Joy, the cast of which—Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro and Bradley Cooper—promises to be another strong winner with the actors branch, the Academy’s largest; and Steven Spielberg has returned with Bridge Of Spies, the latest in a long line of Best Picture hopefuls from perhaps the most successful director in motion picture history.
Like The Martian, these films all are from major studios and signal what could be a very strong year for the majors, Oscar-wise. Seven of the ten films named to AFI’s Top Ten list just announced this week are from the majors. Throw in Universal’s Straight Outta Compton, which has been earning strong Best Picture buzz and could get on the nom list for making the story of rap group N.W.A about as compelling as a music biopic possibly could be. A Best Picture nomination would be a nice capper for Universal’s incredible year at the box office, despite the lukewarm returns and fairly disastrous wide rollout of Steve Jobs, which still has Oscar potential even if it’s on an uphill climb.
Warner Bros. has in the mix Mad Max: Fury Road, Black Mass and late bloomer Creed, which really has surprised as a solid contender and could be the sleeper here even though WB has put the lion’s share of its efforts behind Mad Max and Mass. Of the latter two, Mad Max has been the big news so far with key nominations from the Globes, Critics’ Choice, a Best Picture win from the National Board Of Review and a spot in AFI’s prestigious Top Ten list.
Also looking to break into this race is Disney; in addition to Bridge Of Spies, which it has as part of an expiring DreamWorks association, it also has Pixar’s Inside Out. The ‘toon could break out of the Animated Feature ghetto and into the Best Picture leagues, where only three of its ilk have landed before. This is a title I hear about repeatedly. And, although the studio doesn’t need awards love to make Star Wars: The Force Awakens the biggest movie of all time, the J.J. Abrams-helmed phenom just could be good enough, based on rapturous industry response at its world premiere Monday night, to add a Best Picture nom to its haul and become the first in the seven-film series to land a Best Pic nomination since A New Hope in 1977.
