To crown the king ... The Master director Paul Thomas Anderson, producer Harvey Weinstein and actor Joaquin Phoenix. Photograph: Elisabetta A Villa/WireImage
So the dust has settled and the red carpets have been stashed in the garage. Venice and Toronto are over for another year. Which means Oscar is coming a-knocking. The fallout from those festivals, plus last-minute release-date re-jigging, affords a clearer-eyed take on what's likely to bring home the bacon in the new year.
Key conclusions
Its rapturous reception at both festivals has cemented The Master in pole position. A best picture nomination is a lock-in, likewise director, original screenplay, score and cinematography. The unknown is how the Weinsteins choose to maximise their acting award potential. Positioning Joaquin Phoenix as lead and Philip Seymour Hoffman as support looks likely, unless they feel a main category smackdown is irresistible. As with There Will Be Blood (and its 2009/2010 rival No Country for Old Men), this is a major player that's unable to expand its nominations slate with a ton of female acting nods. Amy Adams is a possible for best supporting actress, just as she could convert her role in Clint Eastwood's Trouble with the Curve into a leading nomination.
Heading for awards glory? ... Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper in David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook
Terrence Malick is never Oscar bait, as confirmed by Venice's other big premiere, To the Wonder. A smattering of respectful nods – cinematography, editing, potentially even supporting actress – are possible, but if there was any awards push in the decision to open at Venice, it doesn't appear to have paid dividends. The most macho clap on the back at Tiff went to David O Russell's Silver Linings Playbook, whose bagging of the audience award (previous recipients: Slumdog Millionaire and The King's Speech) should be taken as an augury of awards glory. As well as a best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay nods, Jennifer Lawrence has an unexpectedly good shot at best actress. Supporting actor Robert De Niro looks more likelier than lead Bradley Cooper.
There was also a lot of fond feeling in town for Argo, Ben Affleck's third film as director, in which he plays a real-life CIA agent sent to smuggle six Americans out of Tehran during the hostage crisis. It's a crowd-pleasing box-ticker, classily done, and looks increasingly likely to do better than its aesthetic ancestor, Frost/Nixon. A few films eagerly anticipated at Toronto met with muted enough reception to mean that may struggle in the running. The polarising Cloud Atlas is one of them, though a best picture nod isn't impossible. Likewise Mike Newell's Great Expectations, and, to some extent, Derek Cianfrance's The Place Beyond the Pines, which might wind up being too grungy or tricksy to echo the critical love for Blue Valentine, or for Drive.
Anna Karenina, though a little unloved this side of the pond, was much more rapturously received over there, too. The Impossible, the Ewan MacGregor/ Naomi Watts tsunami movie, won raves. Buzzing round the periphery were Frances Ha, Much Ado and What Maisie Knew.
Hyde Park on Hudson may have been positioned as this year's King's Speech, but it might just be too on-the-button to repeat Tom Hooper's trick. He's back in the race with Les Misérables, which seems likely to vie with The Master and Silver Linings Playbook for most nominations. Will Anne Hathaway be touted as best actress or best supporting? In either category, she must be the one to beat.
The unknowns
Tough competition ... will Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained get an Academy nod?But there are a handful of key pictures yet to screen. First is Lincoln, Steven Spielberg's biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis, who had looked to be lock-in for best actor, but the slightly soupy trailer casts conversion on other nods in slight doubt. Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino's slavery western, must come out of the race with a brace of nominations. Zero Dark Thirty is Kathryn Bigelow's killing Bin Laden film, about which there is slightly muddled buzz. Gambit may look like the new Coen brothers' film, but they just scripted, rather than directed. Promised Land is Gus van Sant's anti-fracking film, starring Matt Damon; Flight a much-ballyhooed Robert Zemeckis vehicle for Denzel Washington. That film closes the New York film festival next month. Ang Lee's Life of Pi, the last big hitter, opens proceedings.
