Photo: Participant Media
Are you ready for this Sunday's Golden Globes? You'll be even readier if you consult Vulture's predictions for the film categories, which we'll serve up for you in a moment. It's important to note how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association likes its winners: HFPA voters will gravitate toward TV picks that feel fresh and new, but when it comes to the movie races, the HFPA typically confirms the conventional wisdom by choosing Oscar front-runners. Still, since the Globes have separate categories for comedies and dramas, there's always room for a surprise. What will win? Here are our picks.
BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
The HFPA went whole-hog for Mad Max: Fury Road, and if they wanted to send a major message to the industry, they'd pick it here. But typically, the only message the Globe voters want to send is, "We picked the eventual Oscar winner, " and as such, awards-season front-runner Spotlight is guaranteed a victory here.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
The HFPA didn't allow Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander to submit themselves as supporting performances for Carol and The Danish Girl, respectively, so both women landed in the lead category (where they really belong). Not that it will likely make much difference: This race feels like it's coming down to Brie Larson's textured work as a kidnap victim in Room versus Saoirse Ronan's luminous immigrant turn in Brooklyn. This could really go either way, but I think Brie Larson will take it.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
Oscar has proved elusive, but the Globes love Leonardo DiCaprio: He's been nominated 11 freaking times (once, in 2007, he took up two of the five slots for Best Actor in a Drama) and won twice. The Globes won't hesitate to reward him for his bison-munching coronation tour.
BEST MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL, OR COMEDY
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
Back when Fox announced that it was submitting The Martian as a comedy, pundits figured that Ridley Scott's sci-fi film was well positioned to sweep those ostensibly easier comic categories. But that was before The Big Short came on so strong, earning top nods from a swath of Hollywood's biggest guilds. While The Martian still feels like a classic Globes pick, if voters want to prove they're in step with awards-season trends, The Big Short will ultimately prevail.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL, OR COMEDY
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
