83RD Academy Awards nominees

For Your Consideration: Final 2011 Oscar Predictions

Best Actress: Natalie Portman and Annette Bening are the only sure things in his remarkably crowded category. Considering they have SAG, Globe and BFCA noms behind them, one would definitely expect Jennifer Lawrence and Nicole Kidman to join them, but both are vulnerable. Potential spoilers (in order of likelihood) include Michelle Williams, Lesley Manville, Tilda Swinton, Hilary Swank and Julianne Moore. And then there's Hailee Steinfeld, whose campaign positions her as supporting but some organizations (including the BAFTAs) have been nominating her in lead, anyway. Steinfeld could easily pull a Keisha Castle-Hughes and end up here; it's just a question of who gets left out as a result. For now, though, let's say she stays in supporting, leaving these five women as a shaky best actress category prediction:

Locks:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Slightly Vulnerable:
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Very Vulnerable:
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Fighting For The Last Slot:
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
6. Lesley Manville, Another Year
7. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Dark Horses:
8. Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
9. Hilary Swank, Conviction
10. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

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Best Supporting Actor: Like best actress, this category has two locks (Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush) and three questionable slots. Mark Ruffalo (SAG, BFCA, BAFTA), Jeremy Renner (SAG, Globe, BFCA), Andrew Garfield (Globes, BFCA, BAFTA), John Hawkes (SAG), Michael Douglas (Globe), Sam Rockwell (BFCA) each found varying degrees of recognition among Oscar's most trusty predicting precursors. Add in Matt Damon's late-in-the-game buzz for "True Grit" and there's a pretty heated battle of seven men vying for three slots. The never-nominated and well-liked Ruffalo is probably the safest bet, but beyond that it should be quite interesting. The following prediction finds Garfield and Renner making the cut, but watch out for Hawkes and Damon, especially.

Locks:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Fighting For The Last Three Slots:
3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
6. John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
7. Matt Damon, True Grit

Dark Horses:
8. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
9. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
10. Pete Postlethwaite, The Town

A scene from Tom Hooper's "The King's Speech."

Best Supporting Actress: Will Hailee Steinfeld end up in lead? Will Lesley Manville end up here? This category has been dominated by six women - Melissa Leo, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Mila Kunis, Jacki Weaver and Hailee Steinfeld - across all precursors. If Steinfeld goes lead, it seems clear who the five would be. If she doesn't, it seems like it would be Weaver vs. Kunis for the final slot, and one has got to imagine Weaver getting more no. 1 votes. And then what if Lesley Manville, a BAFTA nominee, sneaks in? This category is definitely still one of the biggest mysteries leading into nomination morning.

Locks:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Amy Adams, The Fighter

Slightly Vulnerable:
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Very Vulnerable:
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Fighting For The Last Slot:
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
6. Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Dark Horses:
7. Lesley Manville, Another Year
8. Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
9. Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

The rest, sans commentary:

Best Original Screenplay:

1. David Speidler, The King's Speech
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
3. Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
4. Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver & Paul Tamasy, The Fighter
5. Mike Leigh, Another Year

Spoilers:
6. Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz & John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
7. Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis & Cami Delavigne, Blue Valentine

A scene from Joel & Ethan Coen's "True Grit."

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
2. Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
3. Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, True Grit
4. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
5. Robert Harris & Roman Polanski, The Ghost Writer

Spoilers:
6. Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
7. Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard, The Town

Best Animated Film
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

Spoilers:
4. Despicable Me
5. Tangled

Best Foreign-Language Film
1. In a Better World (Denmark)
2. Incendies (Canada)

Daniel Day-Lewis: Three Time Academy Award winner for Best Actor, The Ultimate Biography: Star of Lincoln, There Will Be Blood and My Left foot: "He was in it -- to Win it!" Full color photo book
Book (CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform)
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